In the recent 2025 midterm elections, something unexpected happened — some people who were not doing so well in surveys ended up winning big. And some who were expected to win didn’t make it!
Let’s break it down so it’s easy to understand. 😊
📊 What Are Surveys and Why Do They Matter?
Before elections, companies like SWS, Pulse Asia, and OCTA Research ask people:
“Who do you plan to vote for?”
These are called surveys. They give us an idea of who might win.
But here’s the thing: surveys don’t always get it right. They are like weather forecasts — helpful, but not perfect.
🧑🏫 Big Surprise: Bam and Kiko Climb to the Top!
Two names shocked everyone:
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Bam Aquino – He’s now in 2nd place! But in the surveys? He was often not in the top 12.
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Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan – He’s in 5th place, even though he wasn’t a favorite in most surveys.
People didn’t expect them to win big — but they did! 🎉
🤔 Why Did This Happen?
Experts think many voters changed their minds at the last minute. Some even made up their minds on election day itself!
Professor Ranjit Rye from OCTA Research said:
“20% of voters decide on the day of the election, and another 20% decide just a week before.”
So, someone might say in a survey, “I don’t know yet,” and later vote for someone totally different!
😮 Not Everyone Got Lucky
Some candidates looked strong in surveys, but didn’t win:
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Ben Tulfo – now at 13th place
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Senator Bong Revilla – at 14th
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Mayor Abby Binay – at 15th
They were in the Top 5 during early surveys, but didn’t make it to the final winning group, also known as the “Magic 12.”
Why? Survey expert Ranjit Rye says:
“Surveys aren’t perfect. They’re not magic. Results can be very close.”
🧩 Endorsements Made a Big Difference
What’s an endorsement? It’s when famous people or groups say:
“Hey, we think you should vote for this person!”
That can really help!
Example:
Rodante Marcoleta is now in 6th place. That’s higher than expected! Why? Because:
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He got support from President Duterte’s family
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He was also backed by Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC), a religious group that votes together
Survey expert Mahar Mangahas said:
“INC’s support is very strong, but they are only about 5% of voters, so it might not change everything.”
🌟 More People Got Help Too
Just before the election:
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Vice President Sara Duterte supported Camille Villar and Senator Imee Marcos
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Kiko Pangilinan got help from leaders in big vote-rich places like Cebu and Cavite
🎯 What Did We Learn?
Even though surveys try to guess who will win, the real votes are what count. People can change their minds, and endorsements can boost a candidate’s chances.
In the end, Kiko and Bam’s surprise win shows us one thing:
🗳️ In elections, anything is possible!
