BRUSSELS — The world is finally starting to bend the curve on climate change. But according to the United Nations, it’s still far too slow.
A new analysis from the UN Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC) revealed that current government pledges could cause global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 10% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels. It’s the first time in decades that a steady global decline is in sight—after years of relentless increases since 1990.
Still, experts warn this isn’t a victory yet. To keep global warming below the critical 1.5°C threshold, emissions need to drop by a massive 60% within the same period. Anything less, scientists say, would bring devastating consequences—stronger typhoons, deadly heatwaves, and rising seas swallowing communities.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell expressed cautious optimism, saying, “Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough.”
He called on world leaders to make bolder moves at next month’s COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil, warning that the pace of change must accelerate drastically if the world hopes to avoid climate catastrophe.
Yet, political and economic realities continue to stall progress. Out of the 64 countries that submitted updated climate plans by September, their combined efforts account for just 30% of global emissions. The UN had to expand its analysis to include unsubmitted pledges—like those from China and the EU—to paint a clearer global picture.
But uncertainties remain. The U.S., for example, faces an unclear path under President Donald Trump, whose administration has been rolling back key climate policies.
Meanwhile, China, the world’s top emitter responsible for nearly 29% of global pollution, pledged to cut emissions by 7% to 10% from its peak by 2035—though it hasn’t said when that peak will come.
Still, analysts say there’s hope. “China tends to under-commit,” said Norah Zhang, a policy analyst at the NewClimate Institute. “They’ve already hit their 2030 renewable energy targets six years early. They can do much more.”
As the clock ticks toward COP30, one thing is clear:
The world has finally started to act—but time is running out to save the planet we call home.
