COMPETING visions for the future of regional security emerged at the 14th Manila Forum for Philippines–China Friendly Relations, where Chinese officials pressed the Philippines to embrace an “Asian” model of cooperation while a former Philippine security chief urged firmness in defending the country’s sovereign rights through “assertive restraint.”
Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian used the forum to present Beijing’s Global Governance Initiative, a framework that he said promotes fairness, inclusiveness and respect for sovereignty. Huang said the initiative rests on five pillars: sovereign equality, adherence to international law, multilateralism, a people-centered approach and concrete action.
“In a world marked by turbulence and transformation, peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific are especially precious. It is our shared responsibility to preserve and safeguard this situation,” Huang told Filipino and Chinese scholars, policymakers and diplomats gathered in Manila.
His message, however, carried pointed warnings. Without naming specific countries, Huang questioned the legitimacy of the “rules-based international order” often cited by Manila and its allies, asking: “Exactly what and whose rules is this founded on?” He also cautioned against attempts to replicate “bloc confrontation in the Asia-Pacific by promoting the idea of an Asia-Pacific NATO,” remarks interpreted as a rebuke of the Philippines’ deepening security ties with the United States, Japan and Australia.
Victor Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, and president of the China Energy Security Institute, echoed the envoy’s message but spoke in sharper terms about Manila’s choices. He warned that aligning too closely with one power would be “suicidal” for the Philippines and urged Filipinos to strengthen economic ties with China while maintaining balance in their foreign relations.
“For thousands of years, China and the Philippines got along without war or confrontation. I believe for many thousands of years to come, we will remain close neighbors and very good friends,” Gao said, recalling his first visit to Manila in the early 1990s when the Philippines was more economically advanced than China.
Today, he said, the Philippines must “treat development as the hard truth” to catch up with Asean neighbors that have surged ahead in infrastructure and connectivity. “The Filipino people deserve to develop. If you do not develop, no one will wait for you. You will be left behind,” he stressed.
On maritime disputes, Gao dismissed the Philippines’ reliance on the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated Beijing’s sweeping claims, calling the award “a violation of the rule of law” since China never consented to the process. He invoked the 1898 Treaty of Paris, claiming it defined the Philippines’ western limit at 118 degrees longitude — a reading that excludes areas now claimed by Manila in the West Philippine Sea.
Even as he challenged the Philippine legal position, Gao emphasized that China would not escalate confrontations at sea. “While I am pained to see confrontation in the South China Sea, I also feel blessed that they are only using water cannons. We must never escalate to real ammunition,” he said.
Former national security adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. offered a contrasting perspective, defending the arbitral ruling and cautioning against yielding to external pressure. Drawing from his experience as chairman of the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea, Esperon said Manila had dealt with swarms of Chinese maritime militia vessels by filing diplomatic protests, strengthening regional partnerships and maintaining operational readiness.
He urged the Philippines to pursue a strategy of “assertive restraint,” balancing firmness with diplomacy. “The principle of assertive restraint calls for standing firm in defense of our rights, including the landmark 2016 arbitral ruling and the provisions of Unclos (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), while resisting the impulse to escalate tensions,” he said.
Esperon also framed national security as a product of internal strength, inclusive growth and civic participation. “A nation cannot project peace outwardly if it is struggling internally,” he said, adding that security must be woven into society — from schools and local governments to the private sector and civil society.
He pointed to maritime cooperation with Indonesia and Malaysia as examples of how trust-based collaboration could build security while addressing piracy, smuggling and terrorism. At the same time, he urged Asean to move beyond economic integration and establish stronger collective mechanisms to address regional flash points.
“Peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific will not be achieved by one nation or one strategy alone,” Esperon said. “We must strengthen our nations from within, act with principled restraint and nurture a shared security culture.”
The Manila Forum, co-organized by the Association for Philippines-China Understanding and the Chinese Embassy in Manila, gathered officials, scholars and policymakers from both countries under the theme of safeguarding peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific.
