Philippines active cases may dip to below 2K in January if protocols followed

The number of active COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may decrease to less than 2,000 by the end of January if the public will continue to comply with minimum public health standards, the Department of Health (DOH) has said.

During the DOH Kapihan, Health Epidemiology Bureau Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman said active cases may decrease to 5,953 by the end of December and further decrease to 1,766 by the end of January if MPHS is maintained.

However, active cases may only go down as low as 8,600 by the end of December and 9,338 by January if MPHS compliance declines by 30%.

“This is still lower than our active cases as of date, but again this slight increase in active cases may continue kung… Ang pagtaas ng ating paggalaw ay masasabayan ng tuloy-tuloy na pagbaba ng ating MPHS compliance,” De Guzman said.

[This is still lower than our active cases as of date, but again this slight increase in active cases may continue if our mobility will be accompanied by the decreasing compliance in MPHS.]

When the projections were made, active cases in the country stood at 11,373.

For the National Capital Region, De Guzman said the DOH saw a continuous decline in active cases even with increases in mobility and a decline in MPHS compliance.

As of December 11 when the projections were made, active cases in the region were at 1,871.

The DOH said its active cases may decrease to 791 by the end of December and 138 by the end of January if compliance is maintained.

However, if compliance declines by 25%, the DOH projected that active cases may decline by 923 by the end of December and 325 by January.

“It doesn’t mean, however, na kahit tuloy-tuloy ang pagbaba ng kaso natin ay hindi tayo magiging compliant o hindi tayo magpapabakuna,” she said.

[It doesn’t mean, however, that this will lead us to become complacent.]

“Napakahalaga na even with these projections for the National Capital Region, we don’t let our guards down and continue to practice our safety protocol, get ourselves vaccinated and seek early consult,” she added.

In Calabarzon, active cases were recorded at 1,682.

Should the MPHS compliance be maintained in the region, its active cases may decrease to 1,061 by the end of December and further decrease to 397 by January.

However, a 30% decline in MPHS will lead to 1,456 active cases by December and 2,127 active cases by the end of January.

“So ito yung nababanggit natin na kailangan talaga tuloy-tuloy ‘yung pag practice natin ng safety protocols,” De Guzman said. –NB, GMA News

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