MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has issued a La Niña alert following its forecast of the phenomenon occurring most likely in October.
Pagasa administrator Nathaniel Servando cited the agency’s climate monitoring and analyses that show further cooling of the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
“Most climate models combined with expert judgments suggest 70 percent chance of La Niña forming in October-December 2025 season and is likely to persist until December 2025 – February 2026,” Servando said.
With this development, Servando said, Pagasa’s ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Alert and Warning System raised La Niña alert.
He said cool-ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific.
La Niña is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Historically, La Niña is characterized by an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year while recent forecast shows higher chances of above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country.
“These could be brought about by several rain-bearing weather systems such as monsoons, severe thunderstorms, low pressure areas, easterlies, shearlines and intertropical convergence zone that can trigger adverse impacts, including floods and landslides in vulnerable areas,” Servando said.
