OCTA: NCR reproduction number at 5; 40% record-high positivity rate recorded on Jan. 3


Published January 5, 2022 1:33pm

The OCTA Research Group on Wednesday said the coronavirus reproduction number in the National Capital Region is at 5 with a new record-high positivity rate of 40% recorded on January 3.

“The reproduction number now in the NCR that we are seeing is about 5, that is a very high reproduction number. The [Average Daily Attack Rate] is at high and the [seven-day average] positivity rate is already at critical level of 25%,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said during the Go Negosyo town hall meeting.

The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down. The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

“For the positivity rate, we have reached a new-high in positivity rate [on January 3]. It’s the highest that we have seen so far 40%. I believe this is already straining our testing capacity our testing laboratories. We have to augment this with antigen testing which we are in fact doing so already,” he added.

But the “upside” was the healthcare utilization rate is still at low risk at 34% although it has been increasing, David said.

“The overall risk level is high for the NCR and we can see the cases did spike. It is almost vertical and we are about halfway to the effective peak of the previous surge,” he said.

“But we want to dissect the numbers and look at other indicators not just the number of cases, mainly because we have the number of vaccination, high level of vaccination in the NCR,” he noted.

According to his presentation, the seven-day average number of COVID-19 cases in the NCR is at 2,314.

Most people infected by the virus belong to the 18- to 39-year-old age group (57%), followed by 40- to 59-year-old individuals (23%), then the 60 and above (10%), zero to 11 (7%); and 12- to 17-year-old individuals (3%).

On Tuesday, the Philippines logged 5,434 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the total tally to 2,861,119.

Of the 5,434 fresh cases, the Department of Health said 5,395 (99%) occurred within the last 14 days from December 22, 2021 to January 4, 2022. The top regions with cases in the recent two weeks were Metro Manila with 3,826 or 71%, Calabarzon with 864 or 16% and Central Luzon with 333 or 6%.

The Philippines’ positivity rate climbed to 26.2% from January 3’s positivity rate of 20.7%. –KG, GMA News

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