OCTA: NCR may be ‘low risk’ for COVID-19 in 2 weeks if cases continue to decline

By Currie Cator, CNN Philippines

The National Capital Region could be at “low risk” for COVID-19 in two weeks if the decrease in daily infections is sustained, according to OCTA Research.

“NCR could improve to low risk within two weeks if downtrend continues,” OCTA fellow Guido David said on Sunday.

His statement comes as the government placed Metro Manila under the more relaxed Alert Level 2 effective Feb. 1 until Feb. 15 despite the ongoing COVID-19 surge in other areas.

NCR, Cavite, and Rizal are currently at “moderate risk” for COVID-19.

OCTA on Saturday said there is an uptick in new infections in Metro Manila, which was a “surprise and not really supported by other indicators.”

The capital region reported 3,625 cases on Jan. 29, much higher than the 2,256 logged on Jan. 28.

“Resurgence?” David said. “It beat the Jan. 20 projections for the first time. Hopefully, it is just backlog.”

David also said Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number — or the number of people an infected person can transmit the virus to — dropped to 0.47 from 0.50. The positivity rate decreased by 1% to 20%, although this is still “very high,” he added.

“We need to strictly comply with health protocols to bring this down to low risk,” David said.

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