TENSIONS are slowly mounting in Mindanao as the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) prepares for its first parliamentary elections in October, security monitors warned.
They said that political rivalries within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), combined with the resurgence of violent extremist networks, could destabilize the region and lead to renewed armed conflict.
In a statement released over the weekend, the advocacy group Climate Conflict Action (CCA) said it has observed “storm signals” of instability that threaten to undermine the Bangsamoro transition.
It pointed to the growing demand for illegal firearms, extremist recruitment among youth in Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte, and the reemergence of extremist cells in Basilan.
“There are credible reports of extremist recruitment inside schools, madrasahs, and community networks in towns such as Munai, Tangkal, and Salvador in Lanao del Norte, as well as Lumbayanague and Marantao in Lanao del Sur,” the group said.
CCA also cited recent attacks on law enforcers in Basilan by suspected extremists, and heightened tensions in ancestral lands of Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples (NMIPs), where the presence of MILF forces continues to spark disputes.
“These are not isolated incidents. Taken together, they are warning signs of a region on the brink of renewed instability,” the group said.
The CCA urged the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and national authorities to strictly enforce the election gun ban, and warned against issuing exemptions to politicians or private groups.
It also called for stronger monitoring of conflict flashpoints, humanitarian preparedness for possible displacement, and the creation of sanctuaries for political figures and community leaders at risk of assassination.
“Appropriate sanctions should be imposed regardless of affiliation,” the group said.
It said conflict prevention mechanisms such as the Coordinating Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities (CCCH) and the Ad Hoc Joint Action Group (Ahjag) should not be allowed to intervene in gun ban violations.
It pushed for more collaboration with independent monitoring bodies, and the establishment of hotlines where citizens can report election-related violence or harassment.
The October polls are considered a milestone in the peace process that ended decades of separatist insurgency in Mindanao.
Analysts have long warned, however, that unresolved grievances, political competition, and extremist influence could challenge the transition.
“The Bangsamoro’s fragile transition cannot withstand neglect,” CCA said. “The buildup of arms, extremist networks, and unresolved grievances threatens to ignite a far greater crisis. The nation must pay attention and act before it is too late.”
While the CCA acknowledged positive developments in governance reforms, it also cautioned against the “weaponization” of accountability measures for political ends.
