What’s happening thousands of miles away in the Middle East is no longer distant—it’s starting to hit home for millions of Filipinos.
On Wednesday, Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan delivered a warning that felt heavy… and urgent.
If the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues, up to 340,000 Filipinos working abroad could lose their jobs.
Let that sink in.
Hundreds of thousands of livelihoods—suddenly at risk.
It all began on February 27, when joint airstrikes by the US and Israel targeted Iran.
In response, Iran fired missiles across the region… and made a move that shook the global economy.
It shut down the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil routes.
And for the Philippines?
That’s a direct hit.
The country relies on the Middle East for 98% of its crude oil supply.
So when oil stops flowing… everything else follows.
Transport costs rise.
Goods become more expensive.
Businesses slow down.
And eventually… jobs disappear.
“We expect unemployment to rise,” Balisacan said during a briefing.
From a projected 4.6% unemployment rate in 2026, it could climb to as high as 5.3%.
That jump may seem small.
But in reality?
It means 200,000 to nearly 340,000 more Filipinos without jobs.
And it’s already happening.
Some Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) have begun losing employment due to deployment bans and forced repatriation.
And this could just be the beginning.
“If repatriation increases,” Balisacan warned, “the number of unemployed will grow even more.”
Behind the numbers are real struggles.
Lower remittances.
Higher oil prices.
Rising transport costs.
And shrinking household incomes.
For a country where 75% of the economy depends on domestic spending, the ripple effect is impossible to ignore.
Less income means less spending.
Less spending means slower growth.
And then… poverty creeps in.
From a baseline of 12% poverty—or about 14 million Filipinos—Balisacan said the number could rise further.
Between 150,000 to 600,000 more Filipinos may fall into poverty.
And if fuel prices continue to surge?
That number could climb even higher—reaching up to 650,000, according to reports.
That’s not just a statistic.
That’s families struggling to eat.
Parents losing jobs.
Dreams being put on hold.
The government is now bracing for impact.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered the creation of a Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport—a broad response to cushion the blow.
More than P200 billion has already been set aside to support affected sectors.
At the same time, government agencies are being told to tighten spending… and prepare for the worst.
“Time for us to think that high prices may stay for quite some time,” Balisacan said.
Because this isn’t just a short-term crisis anymore.
It’s a test of resilience.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin added another layer to the reality.
Yes, fuel prices in the Philippines have risen sharply—faster than in many countries.
But in terms of actual cost?
“We’re not the highest,” she explained. “We’re somewhere in the middle.”
Still, the country remains highly vulnerable.
When global oil prices spike… the Philippines feels it faster—and harder.
And now, the question lingers:
How long can Filipinos hold on…
if the crisis doesn’t end soon?
